Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. The Tipping Points of the 2016 Election - The Atlantic Found an error on our site? These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. hide caption. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). Jeff. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. "They followed through the whole four years. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. In communities . More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. 5. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. Until this year. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. 108,000 people. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Bellwether - Wikipedia Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. This county voted with the popular vote each time. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". 10. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! Watch Hampton City. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. 03:30. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. It gets a lot more interesting. The highest percentage being 66.1%. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. How could 16 out of 17 bellwether counties predict a Trump win - Quora As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties - BBC In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. Here's why. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. 7. From Florida to Texas, the 6 Key Counties That Could Decide the - Vogue Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Where did all the bellwether counties go? - HotAir The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. 25 battleground counties to watch - POLITICO More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Bellwether Counties Historical Performance 1984 to 2020 For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. Demographics (84) It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. Team up with others in your region, and help out by George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. Their emotions and decision making process are real. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. Seriously. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Ron Elving . In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. Do you know this baby? Trump won the other 18 counties. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. All Rights Reserved. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties were In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? Their hopes are real. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. We believe this was a mistake. Outstanding. Sumter County, . Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. 12. Joe Biden (631) Fact check: Trump-backed Michigan congressional candidate John - CNN This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. (Go to the bottom of the page. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. The Most Important Question About the 2020 Election Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . The divisions were everywhere. All rights reserved. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. Trump gave them hope. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Not a bad streak. Yes, another Hillsborough! A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Telegram Telegram All other 21 counties voted Republican. So, where are the bellwether counties? Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. But it's still indicative of widespread support.
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